HICK'S PICKS

Here are some quick hits on 10 golfers popping as values for me this week - tried to stick mostly to the $6 and $7k ranges.

• Brendon Todd, $7.8k: With course history being relatively predictive this week I’m surprised to see The Toddfather sitting at sub-10% ownership. He finished 8th here in 2021 and 3rd in 2022, and he’s just one event removed from an 8th place showing at the elevated Wells Fargo Championship. He comes into Colonial as the 5th best adjusted course fit, and there’s a lot to like over the last 36 rounds – 14th in driving accuracy, 17th in good drive %, top 25 from 100-200 yards, 2nd weighted ARG and 8th in bentgrass putting. He’s also in the top third when looking at comp courses – a perfect recipe for a 3rdstraight top 10 finish this year. 

• Russell Henley, $8.8k: Russ is shaping up to be a nice pivot play this week sandwiched between chalk Rickie and Cam Davis. We don’t have a ton of course history to rely on, and while he hasn’t played in a ton of events recently, prior to last week’s missed cut he finished 19th at the RBC Heritage, T4 at the Masters, 17th at Match Play, and T19 at the Players. He’s gained T2G in 6 straight with an impressive +4.5 average, and he lands 19th in adjusted course fit at Colonial. Over the last 36 rounds he’s 1st in driving accuracy, 3rd in good drive %, 35th in weighted approach and 13th in weighted T2G, and 11th in bogey avoidance. His putter can be a weakness but has shown some recent improvement, and I think his ball-striking will give him plenty of opportunities relative to the field this week. 

• Ben Martin, $6.8k:  I think B-Mart is one of the biggest misprices of the week and he’ll be finding his way into plenty of my lineups. He profiles similarly to Russell Henley – 4th in driving accuracy, 41stin weighted approach (top 15 from 100-150 yards), slightly worse T2G (46th) but slightly better with the putter (34th). There’s a lack of course history and nothing eye-popping with recent form, although he does have 4 top-15 finishes to his name in 13 of his 2023 starts. This is the kind of upside you need in the $6ks to unlock some nuts starts and scrubs lineups. 

• Carson Young, $6.3k: DK is drunk. Speaking of upside, how do you stay away from the real C Young at a near min price tag?  He’s been boom or bust since the Honda Class back in late February…just look at these results: T29, T3, MC, T38, MC, T19, MC, T15, MC, T14. He also just lit up the US Open Qualifier in Dallas, winning by 5 strokes while shooting 63 and a course record 62. We’ll see if he can string together back to back performances, but all signs points to yes – 15th in course fit, 5th in driving accuracy, 12th good drive %, 32ndweighted approach, 24th T2G, and 13th in bogey avoidance which could be a premium this week. He’s also trending nicely with the putter having gained in 4 straight events.

• Mark Hubbard, $6.6k: Elite accuracy off the tee (8th), dialed-in irons (24th from 100-200 yards), solid ARG and a positive bentgrass putter – sign me up all day. We’re starting to see at return to form from Hubbs who has made 7 of his last 10 cuts with his best showing being a T11 at the elevated RBC Heritage. He has made his last 3 cuts here despite losing strokes ball-striking, so I’m betting on him flipping the switch this year and will take the upside in the mid-$6k range. 

• Christiaan Bezuidenhout, $7.7k: Another misprice, I think C-Bez could be in the low $8ks and I’ll still plug him in my player pool. He seems to check every box this week which likely means he misses the cut by a mile. He finished T15 here last year in typical fashion – gaining every while bleeding strokes ARG. He’s 26th in driving accuracy and 19th in fairways gained, he’s 19th in weighted approach including 20th from 100-200 yards, and he’s the 10th best bentgrass putter in the field. He also rates out well on comp courses as evidenced by his T19 finish at the RBC Heritage last month. There’s no way C-Bez lets you down this week…?

• Eric Cole, $7.2k: Cole doesn’t fit the mold of accuracy of the tee that I’m leaning on this week, but the rest of his game has been so good I can’t see a reason why he can’t stay hot at his first Charles Schwab start this week. He’s had 6 top-15s in his 15 starts in 2023, including two straight finishes of T23 and T15 at last week’s PGA Championship. He’s also gained T2G in 10 of his 13 measured starts and can spike big-time with the putter. He’s 18th in weighted approach and 17th weighted ARG, is one of the best (3rd) in bogey avoidance and is in the top 1/3rdin opportunities gained. He should be coming in with a ton of confidence and ready to make a run at the top of the leaderboard in this week’s field. 

• Nate Lashley, $6.9k: Another similar play in the mold of Russell Henley, I think Nasty Nate will give himself a ton of scoring opportunities this week relative to the field. He should be playing out of the fairways for the most part (16th good drive percentage + 29th fairways gained) and he’s one of the best approach players in the field (12thweighted approach, 33rd from 100-200 yards). He also avoids bogeys at the 12thhighest rate and has looked solid with the putter, gaining in 4 straight on the greens while making the cut in all four of those starts. He should be a nice course fit here and look to reverse the negative ball-striking play that his plagued him at Colonial (2 of 4 made cuts, best finish a T32).   

• Hayden Buckley, $7.3k: Buckley has been on a roll making the cut in 5 straight events with finishes of T10, T5 (elevated), T26 (Match Play), T43 (elevated), and T26 at last week’s brutal PGA Championship. He’s been doing it despite his woeful ARG game – 3rd weighted OTT (29thaccuracy & 19th in distance good for 4th in good drive %), 38th in weighted approach, and 28th in opportunities gained. He’s super streaky with the putter but bentgrass is his best surface. And he has smashed at the two comp courses already this year – T5 at April’s RBC Heritage and solo 2nd in January’s Sony Open. I like his upside and think he could threaten a 4th top 10 finish in his 2023 season this week. 

• Austin Eckroat, $6.7k: Another volatile, high upside play worth taking a shot on this week. He’s coming in off of three straight made cuts averaging a ridiculous 4.5 strokes gained ball-striking, including a dreamy runner up performance at the AT&T Byron Nelson two weeks ago. Along with MANY missed cuts, he also hit a T5 at Corales and a T12 at the Sony Open (comp course) in January. No course history but he sets up as a great course fit – 13th in driving accuracy, 8th in good drives gained, 16th and 8th from 150-175 and 175-200 yards respectively, 27th in bogey avoidance and 2nd in bentgrass putting. Keep an eye on ownership steam but for now it’s all systems go.